Is the Gaza Ceasefire Holding?
The October 2025 truce hasn't collapsed — but it hasn't stopped the killing either, and the US-backed disarmament plan meant to make it permanent is now stalled between two irreconcilable sequencing demands.
Status at a glance
The full assessment
“Holding” is doing a lot of work in that sentence
The October 2025 ceasefire has not formally collapsed — there's no return to the intensity of open war, and both sides continue to describe it as in effect. But more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since it began, funding for reconstruction remains critically short, and the Israeli military continues to hold roughly two-thirds of the territory. A ceasefire that hasn't broken down and a ceasefire that's actually stopped the killing are two different things, and this one is closer to the first.
The disarmament plan that both sides have rejected, differently
The Trump administration's Board of Peace plan was supposed to be the mechanism that converts the ceasefire into something durable: Hamas disarms, Israel withdraws. In practice, Hamas agreed in principle on July 31 but says it won't actually disarm until Israel withdraws first — reversing the plan's intended sequencing. Netanyahu then explicitly rejected that sequencing on August 9, insisting on disarmament before any Israeli withdrawal. Both sides have effectively vetoed the version of the plan the other would accept, while a Board of Peace official maintains the plan is 'still operative.'
Why this matters beyond Gaza
The same US officials working the Gaza track — chiefly Jared Kushner — are simultaneously involved in Iran and Hormuz diplomacy, meaning bandwidth and leverage are split across theaters. Meanwhile, a Houthi strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery in mid-August and a UN warning about renewed Houthi-Saudi war risk shows the Gaza standoff isn't contained to Gaza — it's one node in a wider regional pressure system that includes Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gulf.
Timeline since the ceasefire
A fragile ceasefire takes hold following intensive international pressure. Hamas does not disarm as part of the initial deal.
The UN reports more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the October 2025 ceasefire began, despite the truce nominally holding.
The International Court of Justice orders Israel to open aid corridors into Gaza. Compliance is only partial.
A $4B+ Gaza reconstruction appeal is only 13% funded. Gaza's hospital system is described as collapsed.
More than 14 people are killed in a single day, including in a strike on a funeral procession. The post-ceasefire death toll passes 1,123. The IDF cites control of roughly 65% of Gaza.
Trump announces Hamas has agreed to disarm. Hamas says it won't actually implement the agreement without an Israeli withdrawal first. Israel has not endorsed the plan.
Netanyahu says Israel won't withdraw 'from current lines' until Hamas is 'completely disarmed.' The Al-Quds Brigades separately consent to the plan on Aug 2; strikes intensify regardless, with 18 killed on Aug 1 alone.
Netanyahu publicly rejects the US-backed disarmament roadmap at a cabinet meeting, insisting the IDF won't withdraw from any part of Gaza until Hamas is genuinely disarmed — reversing the plan's proposed sequencing. A Board of Peace official says the plan remains 'still operative' regardless.
Jared Kushner is expected in Israel and Egypt for Board of Peace talks pushing the Gaza plan forward. Separately, Yemen's Houthis claim a strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery, and the UN warns the risk of renewed Houthi-Saudi war is now the highest since the 2022 truce.
This status synthesizes the full Gaza event log tracked in real time on the main conflict dashboard, under Theaters → Israel & the Levant.
Unclassified · OSINT · Not an independent intelligence product — synthesized from open-source theater data tracked elsewhere on this site