Both of the week’s headline tracks hardened overnight

The overnight picture is one of adversaries preparing for longer contests rather than settlements. Zelensky said on Sep 26 that Russia launched more than 2,730 jet-powered Shaheds in September, of which Ukraine downed only about 55%, and that intelligence shows Moscow planning to spend $12 billion on jet drones and loitering munitions in 2027; ‘the Russians are not preparing to end the war,’ he said. Russian drones struck Kyiv for a third night into Sep 27, injuring one woman, after strikes on Sep 26 killed 4 in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy. Ukraine hit the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast, which makes missile optics and homing heads, with Neptune missiles and rocket drones, a day after striking the Ilsky refinery. On Iran, Araghchi says Tehran is waiting for Washington’s formal reply through mediators after Trump rejected the seven-day plan, and the IRGC said it ‘will not stop punishing the US’ until Iran’s conditions are met — IRNA, Tasnim. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Türkiye and Oman have stopped Mahan Air flights, the UAE has halted all Iranian airlines, and major UAE and Turkish banks have ceased Iran transactions — Times of Israel. Yemen’s president called a general mobilisation against the Houthis. Elsewhere, Sudan’s army and allied Joint Force retook Sodari, the RSF’s main base in North Kordofan, on Sep 25; Polish prosecutors opened a terrorism case over the Starlink ground-station arson, citing ‘reasonable suspicion’ that Russian special services ordered it; India’s Jaishankar told the UN that Pakistan is a ‘serial practitioner of terrorism’; and Hamas’s al-Hayya called the Gaza roadmap ‘a complete package’ ending in statehood without saying whether Hamas would disarm. In Mexico, more than 2,000 people marched to the Zócalo on the 12th anniversary of Ayotzinapa.