Moscow is adding manpower while Tehran returns to the mediators

The past 72 hours shifted attention from what the warring states are saying to what they are building. In Russia, a Sep 28 decree set the armed forces’ authorised strength at 2,441,630, including 1,550,500 military personnel — an increase of 15,500 and the fourth this year — Euromaidan Press. Zelensky said Russia has ‘already begun additional mobilization,’ that more than 8,000 North Korean troops are in Russia with another 10,000 being prepared, and that North Korea now produces Shahed-type drones with Russian help; the Kremlin calls mobilization reports ‘nonsense.’ Russia also kept up pressure on Ukrainian cities: a daylight strike on Sep 28 set the National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv on fire, killing 2, during a wave of 120 drones, 90 of them jet-powered, of which Ukraine downed about 57%; attacks that day killed at least 9 nationwide, including 3 at a Dnipro business centre, and missiles followed on Kyiv overnight — Al Jazeera, Ukrinform. On Iran, the channel has moved back to intermediaries. Araghchi met Qatari mediators in New York on Sep 29, said ‘they had some ideas, and we will also present to the American side,’ and expects Washington’s answer by Sep 30; a US official said there will be no agreement unless Iran’s nuclear programme is addressed — Al Jazeera. Trump denied weighing sanctions relief. In Britain, five men arrested Sep 27 near RAF Fairford, the base for US bomber strikes on Iran, were bailed while counter-terror police examine whether they acted for a foreign state; Rubio said a ‘foreign actor’ was clearly involved, and Iran denies it. Brent settled at $102.59 on Sep 29, down 2.6%, after Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings. Elsewhere, Afghanistan says 28 fighters who crossed from Pakistan were killed in Nuristan, which Islamabad denies; Israeli officials are floating an expanded Gaza operation; and Estonia blamed Russian intelligence for the Milrem Robotics arson.